Personnel Information

写真b

TOBE Satoshi

Organization
School of Policy Studies
Research Fields, Keywords
Asset price bubble, International Capital Flows, 国際資本移動
Teaching and Research Fields
国際金融やマクロ経済学が専門分野です。それぞれの分野に関してデータを用いた実証研究を行っています。

研究のキーワードは資産価格バブルです。多くの国で貸出拡大と資産価格上昇が同時に発生し、それが金融危機や深刻な不況に繋がることは広く知られています。80年代後半から90年代の日本や、2000年代のアメリカでのイベントは典型例です。「失われた20年」や「100年に一度の金融危機」と呼ばれたものです。

従来の研究では、(1)貸出拡大が短期的な資産価格のブーム/バブルを醸成する側面と、(2)中長期的なバスト/バブル崩壊に帰結する側面が別々の研究テーマとして扱われてきました。現在進行中の研究では過去40年の先進国のデータを使って、(1)と(2)を統一的な分析手法で架橋し、ブームからバストへ至る一般的なパターンが貸出拡大によって引き起こされていることを示そうと試みています。

また、2000年以降の中国でも貸出拡大から住宅価格の上昇、そして下落に至る同様のパターンが認められます。特にここ数年の中国経済の減速の兆候は多くの人の興味を引いていることと思います。現在進行中の別の研究では、これらのブームとバストのパターンの少なくない部分が2000年代後半に始まった銀行規制の緩和と、それに起因する貸出拡大によって引き起こされたことを示そうとしています。

以上のブームとバストのパターンには、国内要因だけでなく国外要因も重要な役割を果たしています。「海外投資家の買い/売り注文によって株価が上がった/下がった」などのニュースは見たことがあると思います。資産バブルも同様で、海外からの資金の流入や流出によってブームとバストの振幅が大きくなる場合があります。それを考慮して、国境を跨ぐ資金の貸借取引がどのような要因によって決まり、どのような帰結をもたらすのかについての研究も進めています。
URL
https://sites.google.com/site/econstobe/home
Syllabus information URL
https://syllabus.kwansei.ac.jp/uniasv2/UnSSOLoginControlFree?REQ_ACTION_DO=/AGA030PLS01Action.do?REQ_FUNCTION_JUMP_START_FLG=1&SLB_LINK_DISP_FLG=531&TCH_NO=180024&REQ_PRFR_FUNC_ID=AGA030
SDGs Related Goals
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Graduating School 【 display / non-display 】

  • Graduating School:Keio University
    Faculty:Faculty of Economics

    Kind of school:University
    Date of graduation:2010.03
    Completion status:Graduated
    Country location code:Japan

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Graduate School 【 display / non-display 】

  • Graduate school:Keio University
    Department:Graduate School, Division of Economics
    Course:経済学専攻

    Course completed:Doctor's Course
    Date of completion:2018.03
    Completion status:Accomplished credits for doctoral program
    Country:Japan

  • Graduate school:Keio University
    Department:Graduate School, Division of Economics
    Course:経済学専攻

    Course completed:Master's Course
    Date of completion:2014.03
    Completion status:Completed
    Country:Japan

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Degree 【 display / non-display 】

  • Degree name:M.A. Economics
    Classified degree field:Economics
    Conferring institution:Keio University
    Acquisition way:Coursework
    Date of acquisition:2014.03

  • Degree name:B.A. Economics
    Classified degree field:Economics
    Conferring institution:Keio University
    Acquisition way:Coursework
    Date of acquisition:2010.03

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Career 【 display / non-display 】

  • Affiliation:Nanyang Technological University
    Department:Economic growth centre
    Title:Visiting Scholar
    Date:2023.09 - 2025.08

  • Affiliation:Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore
    Department:Centre on Asia and Globalization
    Title:Visiting scholar
    Date:2017.11

  • Affiliation:Keio Universtiy Global Research Institute
    Title:Research staff
    Date:2017.04 - 2018.03

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Association Memberships 【 display / non-display 】

  • Academic society name:JAPANESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
    Academic country located:Japan

  • Academic society name:JAPAN SOCIETY OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
    Academic country located:Japan

  • Academic society name:Japan Society of International Economics
    Academic country located:Japan

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Research Areas 【 display / non-display 】

  • Research field:Humanities & Social Sciences / Money and finance

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Papers 【 display / non-display 】

  • Title: Chinese housing market and bank credit
    Journal name: JOURNAL OF ASIAN ECONOMICS  vol.76
    Date of publication: 2021.10
    Author(s): Sakuragawa Masaya, Tobe Satoshi, Zhou Mengyuan

    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2021.101361

    　 Show links to external sites

  • Language: English
    Title: House Price and Credit Cycles: Effects of Global Liquidity and Risk Perception
    Journal name: KGRI Working Papers, No.9
    Date of publication: 2017.10
    Author(s): Satoshi Tobe

    Type of publication: Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution)
    Co-author classification: Single Author

  • Language: English
    Title: Local Banking Systems and Sensitivity of Capital Inflows to Global Factor
    Journal name: Economics Bulletin  vol.37  (3)  (p.1861 - 1872)
    Date of publication: 2017.08
    Author(s): Satoshi Tobe

    Type of publication: Research paper (scientific journal)
    Co-author classification: Single Author

  • Language: English
    Title: Domestic Credit Growth, International Capital Inflows, and Risk Perception in Global Markets
    Journal name: Economics Bulletin  vol.37  (2)  (p.631 - 636)
    Date of publication: 2017.04
    Author(s): Satoshi Tobe

    Type of publication: Research paper (scientific journal)
    Co-author classification: Single Author

  • Language: Japanese
    Title: The Impact of International Capital Inflows on Asset Price and Leverage
    Journal name: Review of Monetary and Financial Studies  (39)  (p.15 - 37)
    Date of publication: 2017.03
    Author(s): Satoshi Tobe

    Type of publication: Research paper (scientific journal)
    Co-author classification: Single Author

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Books 【 display / non-display 】

  • Language: English
    Title: Capital Flows in ASEAN
    Publisher: Chapter 6 of Economic Cooperation in in East Asia, Edited by Tomoo Kikuchi and Masaya Sakuragawa, RSIS Monograph No. 35
    Date of publication: 2019.06
    Author(s): Satoshi Tobe

    Type of books: Report
    Area of responsibility: Chapter 6
    Authorship：Sole author

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Research Projects 【 display / non-display 】

  • Research category:基盤研究(C)
    Project year：2024.04 - 2027.03
    Title:金融規制緩和に伴う貸出拡大と住宅価格ブーム

  • Research category:Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
    Project year：2020.04 - 2024.03
    Title:Credit-induced Boom-bust Cycles of Housing Prices

  • Research category:Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity start-up
    Project year：2018.08 - 2020.03
    Title:Research on International Transmission Channels of the U.S. Monetary Policy

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Presentations 【 display / non-display 】

  • Conference name:2024 Spring Meeting of Japanese Economic Association
    International/Domestic presentation:Domestic presentation
    Holding date：2024.05
    Presentation date：2024.05.25
    Title:Credit Supply and Housing Prices: Evidence from Banking Deregulation in China
    Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)

  • Conference name: Spring Annual Meeting of Japan Society of Monetary Economics
    International/Domestic presentation:Domestic presentation
    Holding date：2024.05
    Presentation date：2024.05.18
    Title:Credit Supply and Housing Prices: Evidence from Banking Deregulation in China
    Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)

  • Conference name:International Conference on International Capital Flows and Economic Development
    International/Domestic presentation:International presentation
    Holding date：2023.03
    Presentation date：2023.03
    Title:Does Foreign Equity Investment Contribute to Economic Growth?

  • Conference name:NCU Modern Economics Seminar
    Holding date：2022
    Presentation date：2022
    Title:Credit-induced Boom and Financial Development: Difference-in-differences Approach
    Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)

  • Conference name:International Conference on International Capital Flows and Economic Development, GSAPS, Waseda University
    Holding date：2022
    Presentation date：2022
    Title:Does Foreign Equity Investment Contribute to Economic Growth?
    Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)

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